Great Wall Motors
July Production and Sales Express Comments: Production and sales continue to recover, globalization accelerates
Event overview: On August 8, 2022, () released the July production and sales express: July automobile production 102,200 vehicles, + 15.02% year-on-year; automobile sales 101,900 vehicles, + 11.32% year-on-year.
The order of production and sales has been restored smoothly, and the sales performance in the second half of the year is expected to continue to improve. Great Wall’s automobile sales in July 101,900 units, + 11.32% year-on-year/month-on-month + 0.73%, positive year-on-year growth for two consecutive months, and positive month-on-month in July, the company’s production and sales continued to recover. In terms of sub-brands, Haval/Tank/Euler/WEY/pickup truck sales were 6.13/1 25/0.88/0.30/1 6,300 units, respectively, + 7.14%/+ 128.03%/+ 21.76%/-24.26%/-7.53% year-on-year, of which tanks performed well in the same month-on-month, mainly driven by tank 300 and 500 series sales. In the first half of the year, the supply chain restricted the release of production and sales. With the recovery of the supply chain after the epidemic and the gradual supply of ESP With the second half of the year, policies such as the introduction of automobiles to the countryside and the reduction of purchase taxes will stimulate consumer demand; supply and demand will quickly resume the cycle of stacking new products, and the company’s sales are expected to continue to improve.
Brand differentiation strategy highlights the effect, product structure optimization to promote the brand upward. sub-brand point of view. 1) Haval: Haval H6 sales 27,600 vehicles, + 7.35% year-on-year; new Haval big dog hunting version sales 10,000 vehicles, + 19.36% year-on-year; Kugou will be listed in August, priced 12.58-14 9,800 yuan, intelligent configuration leading, positioning young client base is expected to bring new volume. 2) Wey: Latte DHT has been listed in ****, further improving the WEY brand product structure, the follow-up dream and other series of new cars are expected to gradually drive brand sales; 3) Euler: Ballet Cat officially listed in July, the second half of the Lightning Cat/Punk Cat will also be listed one after another; 4) ****: **** 300 has been listed so far, the cumulative delivery volume has exceeded 130,000, and the high-end product **** 500 has sold 2,518 monthly. Orders are currently abundant, and the high-end model **** 700/800 is expected to drive the brand volume and price. By optimizing the product matrix, the company’s sales volume of models above 200,000 yuan in July increased to 21% month-on-month. The strong product cycle continues in the second half of the year, and Haval Kugou, Latte DHT, Dream, Lightning Cat, Punk Cat and other models are expected to be launched in the second half of the year. With the intensive launch of blockbuster new cars of various brands, the company is expected to usher in a new situation of rising volume and price.
The intelligent transformation is advancing steadily, and the globalization strategy is accelerating. Through the establishment of the Coffee Smart Ecological Alliance, the company has fully integrated the core resources of the upstream, midstream and downstream industrial chain. It has full-stack self-research capabilities in core technologies in the field of full-dimensional intelligence such as intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit, and intelligent services. It is able to provide users with leading intelligent products and digital services, and accelerate the company’s transformation into a global intelligent enterprise. In July, the sales volume of intelligent models accounted for 88.32%, and it is expected to further increase in the future. At present, the company’s overseas cumulative sales have exceeded one million, and it has been exported to more than 170 countries and regions around the world, with nearly 700 overseas sales channels. In July, Great Wall Motor announced that its Brazilian factory produces intelligent new energy models and Great Wall Motor Malaysia Sales Co., Ltd. was officially established. In August, Great Wall Motor signed a contract with EmilFrey to jointly market Wei brand Mocha PHEV and Euler Good Cat. The new car will be officially delivered in the fourth quarter of this year. The company accelerated its expansion into the European market and accelerated the implementation of its globalization strategy.
Investment advice: It is expected that the company’s net profit returned to the parent in 2022-2024 will be 95.49/156/18.878 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 31/19/16 times the current share price PE. It is expected that the company will fully benefit from the industrial policy, optimistic about the company’s electric intelligent development and multi-brand Strategy and Development, and maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: raw material prices fluctuate, chip supply is less than expected, and epidemic control is less than expected.
Changan Automobile
Independent sales continue to improve, and the dark blue SL03 and Avita 11 are expected to promote the growth of new energy vehicle brands
The overall sales volume of Changan Automobile increased steadily. The overall sales volume of Changan Automobile in July was 200,900, an increase of 12.9% year-on-year; the overall sales volume from January to July was 1.3267 million, a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year. Under the superposition of the continuous improvement of the domestic supply chain and the stimulus policy of car purchase, the overall sales volume of Changan in July achieved steady growth.
Changan independent sales continue to improve, deep blue SL03 and Avita 11 is expected to drive the independent new energy brand upward. Changan independent brand sales in July 128,300, an increase of 35.6%, an increase of 8.5% month-on-month; 1-July cumulative sales of 757,500 vehicles, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year, Changan independent brand sales in July with the same month to maintain growth trend. Changan independent brand new energy sales in July 23,400 vehicles, an increase of 84.2%; 1-July cumulative sales of 108,400 vehicles, an increase of 116.3%. In July, Changan Lumin sales 7,400 vehicles, Benben E-star sales 10,100 vehicles, CS75 sales 21,400 vehicles, Yidong sales 17,800 vehicles, UNI-V sales 15,600 vehicles. The first model SL03 of Changan new pure electric brand dark blue was officially launched on July 25, 515 pure electric version/705 pure electric version/1200 extended range version/730 hydrogen electric version priced at 18.39/21 59/16.89/699,900 yuan, dark blue SL03 cockpit system is equipped with "Changan Smart Core" vehicle domain controller and cockpit domain controller based on Qualcomm 8155 chip, standard 14.6-inch intelligent rotating sunflower screen, 10.2-inch full LCD instrument, 1.9m2 star panoramic canopy system and other high-end hardware, support gesture recognition, 3D holographic face login, Bluetooth/NFC digital key and other humanized functions; deep blue SL03 intelligent driving system comes standard with 6 ultrasonic radars, 3 millimeter wave radars and 6 cameras, which can realize active emergency braking, lane departure warning, lane departure warning L2-level auxiliary driving functions such as hold and reverse lateral warning, and a high-level smart driving system equipped with 28 sensors is available. The cockpit and smart driving configuration are more outstanding among models at the same price. In addition, the Avita 11 jointly built by Changan, Huawei and () was officially launched on August 8, priced 34.99-40 9,900 yuan, with a cruising range of 555km/680km, the fastest 100-kilometer acceleration of 3.98s, and good power and battery life. Avita 11 will be fully equipped with Huawei HI full-stack smart car solutions and advanced battery technology in Ningde Times. It is expected that Avita 11 and dark blue SL03 will have strong product competitiveness, which is expected to drive Changan’s independent new energy brand to continue to rise.
Changfu and Changma sales are slightly under pressure in the short term. Changan Ford sold 23,600 vehicles in July, down 9.4% year-on-year; the cumulative sales volume from January to July was 147,000 vehicles, down 7.3% year-on-year. Changan Mazda sold 8,000 vehicles in July, down 20.0% year-on-year; the cumulative sales volume from January to July was 71,700 vehicles, an increase of 1.9% year-on-year. In terms of new cars, the new Mondeo and new Focus models have been listed recently, and the new Explorer will also be launched in August. It is expected that the launch of new cars will help the sales of joint venture brands to gradually improve.
Forecast 2022-2024 net profit to the parent 85.54, 94.08, 11.431 billion yuan, comparable to the company’s 22-year average PE26 times, give the company 22 years PE26 times valuation, target price 22.36 yuan, maintain buy rating.
Risk warning
Changan Ford sales are lower than expected, Changan Mazda sales are lower than expected, and Changan independent brand sales are lower than expected.
Kweichow Moutai
2022 Semi-Annual Report Comments: Q2 Potential Energy Remains, Reform Dividends Continue to Release
Event: () released the 2022 semi-annual report, 22H1 operating income 59.444 billion yuan, an increase of 17.20%, net profit to the parent 29.794 billion yuan, an increase of 20.85%. Q2 single quarter total revenue 26.256 billion yuan, an increase of 15.89%, net profit to the parent 12.549 billion yuan, an increase of 17.29%.
Q2 series of wine growth is higher, the proportion of direct sales has increased significantly, and the contribution of e-commerce platforms has increased. Although the epidemic has been repeated in the second quarter, Moutai’s demand toughness is more prominent, and mobile sales have not been greatly affected. Q2 single-quarter revenue achieved a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 16%, in line with previous market expectations. 1) By product, 22Q2 Moutai/series wine revenue 211.05/41 70 million yuan, an increase of 14.97%/22.02% year-on-year. Moutai’s performance is solid, and the growth rate of series wine is relatively prominent. It is estimated that Moutai 1935 contributed a higher increase. 2) By channel, 22Q2 direct sales/wholesale channel revenue 100.62/152 13 million yuan, an increase of 112.87%/a decrease of 10.76%, sales channels continue to optimize, direct sales channel revenue significantly improved, accounting for 39.81% of the main business income, year-on-year/month increase 18.1/6 pct, the end of March e-commerce platform "i Moutai" on-line trial operation, Q2 contribution is higher, to achieve alcohol tax-free income 4.416 billion yuan, of which Moutai 1935, Xiaomao 100ML in the e-commerce platform performance is better, the traditional wholesale channel revenue continued to decline after Q1. 3) As of the end of Q2, the company’s total number of dealers 2188, compared with the end of Q1 decreased by 2.
Profitability has increased steadily, and cash flow has been disturbed in stages. 1) 22Q2 gross profit margin is 91.78%, a slight increase of 0.77pct year-on-year. The estimated average price has increased under the optimization of channel structure. In addition, the proportion of series wine has increased, or there is a certain impact on the gross profit margin. 2) 22Q2 sales expense rate is 3.72%, a slight increase of 0.53pct year-on-year, management and R & D expense rate is 5.86%, a decrease of 1.72pct year-on-year. Taxes and add-ons account for 16.66% of total revenue, an increase of 2.86pct year-on-year, and a comprehensive net profit rate of 47.79% to the mother, an increase of 0.57pct. 3) 22Q2 sales cash return is 29.669 billion yuan, an increase of 6.08% year-on-year. Combined with Q1 cash return, an increase of 41.20% year-on-year, the estimated rhythm has been adjusted. Net cash flow from operating activities in Q2 was 6.865 billion yuan, a decrease of 70.42% year-on-year. Net cash flow from operating activities in the first half of the year was negative, mainly due to the decrease in the net increase in customer deposits and inter-bank deposits of holding subsidiary finance company and the increase in the net increase in deposits with the central bank and inter-bank deposits. Contract liabilities as of the end of Q2 were 9.669 billion yuan, an increase of 1.347 billion yuan from the end of Q1.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: Under the Q2 epidemic, the company’s operating resilience and performance certainty are strong. At present, most regions have completed the July payment and arrived one after another. It is estimated that the payment progress is 60% +. The batch price of Feitian Moutai bulk bottles is 2750-2800 yuan/bottle, and the batch price of whole boxes is about 3,100 yuan, which is relatively stable. The company will continue to reform its marketing. The follow-up "i Moutai" is conducive to enriching direct sales channels and strengthening () coordination. In addition, since the end of last year, it has launched rare Moutai, Year of the Tiger Zodiac Wine, Moutai 1935, 100ML Feitian Moutai, etc., to optimize the product structure. Continuous reform releases dividends, 22-year growth is expected to accelerate, maintaining the 2022-24 EPS forecast of 49.21/57 29/65.84 yuan, and the current stock price corresponds to 39/33/29 times P/E, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: high-end Baijiu demand is weak, channel reform is less than expected, and domestic epidemics are repeated.
